Analysts Weigh In on Bitwise CIO’s $1 Million Bitcoin Projection Amid Growing Store-of-Value Debate

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan Reiterates $1 Million Bitcoin Target

Bitwise Asset Management Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan has once again highlighted the long-term potential for Bitcoin (BTC) to reach $1 million per coin. Hougan argues that if Bitcoin captures a significantly larger share of the global store-of-value market—currently led by gold and government bonds—such a valuation is achievable.

According to Hougan, Bitcoin's prospects are less tied to short-term market fluctuations and more dependent on how much of the world’s wealth preservation market the cryptocurrency is able to absorb over time. "One million sounds crazy," Hougan stated. "It implies Bitcoin will rise 14x from today's price."

He emphasizes the rapid growth of the store-of-value sector, citing expansion from roughly $2.5 trillion in 2004 to nearly $40 trillion in 2024. Despite this strong growth, Bitcoin still represents only about 4% of that market by value. Hougan believes that if Bitcoin were to capture approximately half of the current store-of-value market in the next decade, the coin could reach the $1 million mark. Should the overall market continue to expand, the share Bitcoin needs to achieve this valuation could be even smaller.

The $1 Million Benchmark: A Recurring Theme in Crypto

The notion of a $1 million Bitcoin has steadily gained popularity among industry figures. Notably, Eric Trump recently endorsed the $1 million price point, echoing earlier statements by Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, who projected Bitcoin could attain that value by 2030. Jack Dorsey, former CEO of X (formerly Twitter) and co-founder of Block, suggested a five-year timeframe. Arthur Hayes, ex-CEO of BitMEX, has pointed to 2028 as a possible target year, while Cathie Wood's Ark Invest offered an even more bullish scenario, forecasting $3.8 million by decade's end. Brokerage Bernstein predicted $1 million by 2033.

Analysts say the round number serves as a psychological and marketing milestone. "It’s a clean headline and shorthand for the idea that Bitcoin could rival gold as a store of value," explained Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics. Market analyst Jason Fernandes, co-founder of AdLunam, believes the figure is more symbolic than literal, representing faith in Bitcoin’s ultimate role as a store of value. Fernandes adds that the narrative’s appeal is also fueled by marketing dynamics: "Round numbers travel well and align with holder incentives," though he notes the underlying thesis is substantial.

Institutional Adoption and Market Growth Seen as Key Drivers

Analysts agree that the $1 million target is not a precise forecast, but rather an aspirational indicator tied to Bitcoin’s potential maturation as a global monetary asset. Most experts believe such a move would require years of sustained institutional adoption and ongoing expansion of the store-of-value market.

Greenspan notes that geopolitical instability could strengthen Bitcoin’s appeal, positioning it as a "neutral store of value"—a category previously dominated by gold. However, reaching the $1 million level would necessitate broad, continued institutional support and further regulatory clarity.

Fernandes summarizes Hougan’s argument as a "market-share thesis," stressing that Bitcoin does not need to fully replace gold or fiat, but only to secure a portion of a fast-growing market. "BTC doesn’t need to replace gold or fiat; it only needs to capture about 17% of a projected $121 trillion store-of-value market over the next decade to justify a $1 million price," Fernandes said.

Nima Beni, founder of Bitlease, suggests that loss of confidence in traditional assets could accelerate Bitcoin’s timeline. "Bitcoin reaches $1 million when confidence in traditional ‘safe’ assets breaks," Beni noted, referencing potential sovereign debt crises or disruptions in the gold market as possible catalysts.

Despite bullish forecasts, analysts caution that Bitcoin’s ability to achieve valuations at this magnitude will depend on long-term adoption trends and macroeconomic factors, rather than short-term volatility.

Bitcoin Performance Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty

Recent global tensions have provided additional context. When conflict between the U.S. and Iran escalated, Bitcoin was the only major asset trading as the situation unfolded—initially falling 8.5% but later recovering approximately 11% from its opening-day lows. Over the following two weeks, Bitcoin established a rising price floor between $64,000 and over $70,000, with resistance around $73,000–$74,000.

In comparison to gold, the S&P 500, and Asian stocks during the same period, Bitcoin outperformed these traditional assets. The cryptocurrency displayed characteristics less consistent with a classic safe haven and more akin to a 24/7 liquidity pool, quickly absorbing geopolitical shocks and volatility.