Copper Hits Fresh Records as AI Data Centers Fuel Demand; Citi Sees Path to $15,000

Copper rallies to new highs

Copper prices are extending a powerful 2025 run as demand tied to artificial intelligence (AI) data centers pushes the industrial metal into record territory. July copper futures posted a second consecutive record close on Tuesday, finishing up 1.09% at 6.531. After the settlement, the contract also reached an intraday peak.

The rally has been notable both on a year-to-date basis and over the most recent geopolitical window. Copper is up 14.9% so far this year, and has gained 7.8% since the start of the Iran war.

Strength has been mirrored in global benchmark pricing. On Tuesday, copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) advanced 0.56% to $14,021 per metric ton, marking another record close.

Citi links the surge to AI and energy-transition demand

In a note to clients dated Monday, Citi strategist Charlie Massy-Collier said the latest leg higher is being driven primarily by demand associated with AI data centers. In his view, the market’s growth profile has become increasingly concentrated in structurally supported themes.

“Practically all copper demand growth since 2022 has come from energy transition and AI-related sources,” Massy-Collier wrote.

He added that another demand pathway has gained relevance more recently: strategic inventory stockpiling. According to the strategist, Citi specialists have evaluated how different strategic inventory build scenarios could translate into additional upside pressure on prices.

Break above $13,500 shifts Citi’s stance

Even after copper’s rapid climb, Citi argues the move may have further to run. Massy-Collier said the metal’s push above the key $13,500 per metric ton level is an important technical and macro signal, indicating that a strengthening economic backdrop can support higher pricing.

Citi’s bull-case forecast targets $15,000 per metric ton, which would be roughly 7% above Tuesday’s LME close.

The strategist acknowledged that Citi had previously been cautious about chasing the rally, citing the persistence of resistance around $13,500 in recent weeks. That ceiling, he said, appeared to reflect supply-chain reality rather than purely financial positioning.

“We had been apprehensive about buying copper in recent weeks given the strength of resistance seen at $13,500,” Massy-Collier said. He attributed that resistance at least partly to strong global visible inventory builds in Q1, which suggested “physical pushback” at those price levels despite an already supportive macro environment at the time.

With copper now sustaining levels above that threshold, Citi interprets the move as a confirmation that both longer-term and shorter-term demand drivers are aligned.

“As such, our interpretation of the recent break above $13,500 is one of the market confirming the strength of both the structural and cyclical demand setup, giving us conviction to chase the move higher,” he wrote.

How Citi is positioning for additional upside

To express the bullish view, Massy-Collier said he is implementing the trade via the purchase of an LME copper digital call option with a strike at 15,250, expiring on Aug. 5.

Coinasity's Take

Copper’s breakout reinforces how AI infrastructure buildouts are increasingly shaping real-economy commodity markets alongside the energy transition. Citi’s focus on inventory behavior and the clean break above $13,500 highlights why investors tracking crypto-adjacent themes—like data-center growth, power demand, and broader risk appetite—are also watching industrial inputs as a bellwether for the next phase of the cycle.